Thursday, June 28, 2012

High Tech Socialism?

An anonymous commenter said this of my previous post:
I can't help but think that a future such as this would provide us with more jobless citizens.
A few weeks ago, I had a fascinating conversation with a college professor. His specialty is social media such as Facebook and Twitter. One would think that being a tenured professor is as close to full-proof job security as it gets. Yet, he was terrified of losing his job. As someone in the field he is fully aware of the potential of technological progress. He related to me that there already exists technology that would allow a few charismatic professors to spread their knowledge to the masses over the Internet, thereby eliminating the need for all the others. Case in point is Udacity which offers many classes for free. It's only a matter of time before institutions such as Udacity receive accreditation thereby making quality education much more accessible and affordable.

Yes, people in diverse fields such as college professors, waiters, pharmacists, taxi drivers and even DJs are in danger of getting the pink slip from their employers. Some fields will become much more competitive for humans, while others will be completely dominated by machines. In fact, it is quite possible that most of us, or even all of us would end up losing their jobs thanks to the coming changes.  The question then becomes, what would a jobless society look like?

Before I attempt to answer this question, I would like to state that this blog is not intended for a political discussion.  I will only attempt to explain things the way I see them and you are free to agree or disagree with me.  

As my personal friends know, I am a strong supporter of free market capitalism.  Free market capitalism has created an unprecedented level of prosperity in societies that successfully adopted it.  In fact, it is the driving force behind technological progress.  The reason capitalism works is because it gives a strong incentive to work and contribute to society by utilizing a basic human instinct: greed. Socialist societies, on the other hand, never took greed into account and therefore have consistently failed. This has been the situation up until now. Up until now and for a long time to come human labor has been and will be valuable. However, as technology progresses human labor will gradually lose its value. There will be fewer opportunities for many skilled workers, and ever fewer for unskilled ones. The resulting unemployment may lead to social unrest, unless governments implement social programs to help the unemployed, which would certainly be a step toward socialism.

One of the goals of socialism is equality, whereas capitalism creates and thrives on inequality. It is both greed and inequality that serve as an incentive for workers to try to succeed and move up the social ladder. But what happens when human labor is partially or completely replaced by machines? What is the point of allocating resources unequally in a such a society? Greed and inequality can no longer serve as incentives to contribute to society simply because there is no way to compete with the machines.  And distributing resources equally is synonymous with socialism.  Will socialism be the product of capitalism-driven technological progress? Oh the irony.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

The world of self-driving cars


Imagine taking a ride in a car that drives itself. Sit down, relax and watch your favorite DVD on your way to work. Or maybe you would like to read your favorite book (naturally, the electronic version of it). Texting your girlfriend in your car will be considered a completely harmless activity. No police officer would have the audacity to pull you over for talking on the cellphone. In fact, traffic cops, speeding tickets and the hopelessly special people who cut you off will be a thing of the past. However, the biggest benefit is the sheer number of lives that will be saved. In 2010, there were 32,885 traffic-related fatalities in the US alone, overwhelming majority of them due to human error. Once, a driverless automobile system is implemented, this number will practically reduced to zero.
Also, this change will immensely affect the infrastructure. The roads will be much less crowded not only thanks to telecommuting (more on telecommuting in the future), but also because fewer people will own cars, instead preferring to use driverless taxis. And why not? No need to change the oil regularly, make sure that there are enough PSI in the tires and other delightful automotive maintenance activities. Simply place an order for a taxi online, and your ride will be waiting for you within minutes. The ride is going to be cheap, because there would be no taxi driver to pay. And once you arrive at your destination, you won't need to worry about finding a parking space. That means no need for huge parking structures in our cities, or even regular open air parking lots. Garages will only be useful for starting bands.  Many would simply opt for having extra space in the house instead of a garage.

How soon can we expect self-driving cars? According to the Google Car creator Sebastian Thurn,  In 20 years from now driveless cars will be optional, and in 50 years from now human drivers will be completely phased out. I say the sooner the better!

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

WELCOME

The purpose of this blog is to discuss the way technology affects our society and encourage acceleration of technological progress. I strongly believe that even though technological progress can result in loss of jobs and difficult adjustments in the short term, it will greatly improve human condition in the long term. In fact, it already has.  Case in point is the average life expectancy. Only a hundred years ago, the average life expectancy was 51.5 years for men, and 55.9 years for women.   Today, it is not uncommon for people to live well into their nineties.  The dramatic increase in life expectancy is just one example of how technology has allowed us to live longer, healthier and happier lives.  We have come a long way.  I believe that governments, organizations and individuals must do much more to speed up technological progress. Hence I decided to start this blog.  We will discuss not only the current technological advancements, but also the way they affect our society.  And of course, we will discuss the ways progress can be speeded up.  
What awaits us in the next 20-50 years?  Will manual labor going to be done entirely by machines?  Let's ask a more controversial question: will all intellectual labor be done by machines?  Some futurists say "yes" to both.  Many go as far as suggesting that the humankind is bound to merge with machines.  Will machines take over the world and destroy humanity? Allow me to take the liberty to answer in the negative.  After all, technology will be what we, humans make of it.

 In the near future among other things, we can expect:

1. Self-driving cars that will undoubtedly save many lives because we would no longer rely on our human motor skills to operate our pick-up trucks and SUVs
2. Wearable computers that will assist us in our everyday tasks and help us connect with others in ways unimaginable just a decade ago
3. Treatments for many previously untreatable diseases

I cannot wait to bear witness.  I am looking forward to reading your comments and suggestions.